01 — Model Overview & Thesis
ORRBITAL (Opening Range Reversal and Breakout Indicator for Tactical Asset Leverage) is BinarryStarr's systematic execution model for index futures (ES/MES, NQ/MNQ), built on the opening range breakout framework. It formalizes a three-layer decision process — Regime (should we trade at all today), Location (where on the chart does the setup live), and Trigger (the precise condition that fires an entry, stop, and target) — into a closed-bar state machine suitable for both discretionary execution and automated deployment.
Sections 6–8 of the source document are a session-by-session cheat sheet for traders. Sections 1, 2, 9, and 12 explain the edge for investors and the governance in place before capital is risked.
Origin & Validation Note
ORRBITAL was developed from a review of an ORB strategy page cross-checked against Toby Crabel's opening-range research, Zarattini & Aziz's 2023 ORB study (SSRN 4416622), and independent statistical testing (2015–2025 ES/NQ data). Headline win-rate figures in the source material were found to describe directional continuation, not tradeable P&L — ORRBITAL's rules are re-based on realistic, cost-adjusted expectancy.
02 — Edge Statement
The opening range is where overnight positioning, resting liquidity, and the first wave of informed order flow collide. ORRBITAL does not assume the breakout direction is right more often than not — it assumes that when the range breaks and holds (closes beyond the level on a confirming timeframe), the resulting move tends to be larger, on average, than the moves that fail. That is a right-tail-capture edge, not a high-win-rate edge.
Evidence supports
- The opening range is a statistically meaningful reference level (Crabel, 1988; Fisher's ACD method).
- Requiring a closed candle beyond the level materially reduces false signals.
- Range contraction before the session (NR7 / IDnr4) predicts a higher-quality expansion.
- A 5-minute ORB with a wide target held toward the close produced a documented positive edge net of commissions — low win rate, large average winners.
Evidence does not support
- A 70%+ "win rate" on a full-range-stop, half-range-target structure.
- Ignoring transaction costs and slippage on tight, fast-moving index futures stops.
- Assuming the edge is stable across volatility regimes — low-VIX regimes actively suppress follow-through.
Plain-English summary for investors
ORRBITAL is a momentum/breakout model, not mean-reversion or scalping. Expect a moderate win rate (comparable systems run roughly 35–55%) with expectancy driven by fewer, larger trending winners outrunning more, smaller capped losers. Performance clusters in trending macro regimes and lags in low-volatility, range-bound markets — expected behavior, not malfunction.
03 — The Regime Layer
Should we trade today?
Independent, togglable gates evaluated before the opening range is armed. All enabled filters feed a single boolean regimeOK flag — if false, the state machine never leaves IDLE for that session.
| Filter | What it measures | Rule of thumb | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Range Contraction (NR7 / Inside Day) | Prior day's range vs. the last 4–7 days | Prefer trading days that follow a narrow/inside day | Contraction precedes expansion (Crabel). Narrow-range setups showed the highest breakout-and-hold rate in review. |
| Volatility Tier (ATR) | 14-day Average True Range | Use to size position, not to skip the day | Edge was statistically stable across ATR tiers; use ATR to scale contracts/stop distance instead. |
| Options Regime (GEX) | Dealer gamma exposure | Negative/low GEX favors trend continuation; large positive GEX favors suppression/fade | Dealer hedging flows amplify moves in negative gamma and dampen them in positive gamma. |
| Implied Volatility (VIX) | Broad market fear gauge | Above ~25: halve size or stand down | Elevated VIX raises false-break and whipsaw risk even though raw continuation stats look similar. |
| Day of Week | Calendar | Favor Mon/Tue; caution Wed; Fri clean but two-sided | Historically the cleanest and choppiest sessions cluster on specific weekdays. |
| HTF Trend Bias | Daily/4H structure direction | Only take breaks aligned with higher-timeframe bias | Counter-trend breakouts have a materially higher failure rate. |
| News Blackout | Scheduled high-impact releases | No new entries near CPI/NFP/FOMC/8:30 & 10:00 ET data | Scheduled releases spike false-break risk independent of technical quality. |
04 — The Location Layer
Where do we act?
The primary reference is the Opening Range (default 09:30–10:00 ET), confirmed against a stack of confluence levels.
| Level | Definition | Role in model |
|---|---|---|
| ORB High / Low | High/low of the opening range window (default 30 min) | Primary breakout reference — price must close beyond to arm a trigger |
| Prior Day High / Low | Previous session's RTH extremes | Confluence — breakouts aligned with a prior-day level break carry more weight |
| Overnight High / Low | Globex session extremes | Secondary liquidity reference; overlapping sweeps increase signal quality |
| VWAP | Session volume-weighted average price | Directional filter — longs favored above VWAP, shorts favored below |
| Volume Profile VAH / VAL / POC | Value Area High/Low and Point of Control from prior session(s) | Confluence and target reference; breakouts through the value area edge carry more follow-through |
| Session Liquidity Pools | Resting stops above/below recent swing highs/lows | Explains why false breaks happen — price often runs these pools before reversing |
05 — The Trigger Layer
Entry, stop, target, management
Entry
- Primary: full candle close beyond the ORB high/low on the confirmation timeframe (default 5-min). Wicks don't qualify.
- Skip-if-extended: stand down if price is already >0.25× the ORB range beyond the level at confirmation.
- Retest variant (optional): wait for confirmed break, enter on pullback to broken level / order block / FVG — lower fill rate, better risk:reward.
Stop
- Default: opposite ORB boundary + 1–2 tick buffer.
- Preferred: ATR-based stop (~0.4× 14-day ATR) — matches observed adverse excursion, avoids oversized risk on wide-range days.
Targets & Management
- T1: 0.5× ORB range — take 50% off, move stop to breakeven.
- T2: 1.0× ORB range, or trail via structure to capture right-tail moves.
- One trade per session per instrument. No blind stop-and-reverse.
Why "close beyond the level" matters so much
A wick beyond the ORB level only shows price traded there momentarily — it says nothing about whether buyers/sellers were willing to transact and hold. A closed candle beyond the level is evidence of acceptance, which separates a genuine breakout from a liquidity sweep that immediately reverses.
06 — ORRBITAL State Machine
Closed-bar logic, no repainting
All logic evaluates on closed bars only, mirroring the fund's EA architecture so backtest and live execution behave identically.
| State | Entry condition | Action |
|---|---|---|
| IDLE | Before the opening range window begins | Accumulate no data; wait for session start |
| RANGE_SET | Close of the opening range window (default 10:00 ET) | Lock ORB high/low; compute range width and ATR tier; evaluate regime gates. If regimeOK = false → SKIP_DAY |
| ARMED_LONG / ARMED_SHORT | Regime passed; range locked | Watch confirmation timeframe for a closing break beyond ORB high/low; check skip-if-extended rule |
| AWAIT_RETEST <span class='mono muted'>(optional)</span> | Break confirmed; retest variant enabled | Wait for price to pull back to the broken level / OB / FVG before arming the entry |
| BREAK_CONFIRMED | Qualifying close beyond the level (or retest complete) | Submit entry, stop, T1, T2 |
| IN_TRADE | Position open | Manage T1 partial/breakeven move, trail or hold T2, monitor daily loss cap |
| DONE / SKIP_DAY | Trade closed, or regime gate failed at RANGE_SET | No further entries — enforces one-trade-per-session discipline |
07 — Trader Cheat Sheet
One-page session checklist
Run top to bottom, every session. If any Regime check fails, stand down for the day on that instrument.
Before the open
- Not a scheduled high-impact news day in the 9:30–11:00 ET window (CPI/NFP/FOMC/8:30 & 10:00 data)?
- Was yesterday a contraction day (NR7 / inside day)? Favor arming if yes.
- Where is VIX? >25 → halve size or skip.
- What is the GEX regime? Deeply positive → caution on continuation.
- What is the HTF (daily) trend bias? Only take breaks in that direction.
- Day of week: favor Mon/Tue; caution Wed; Fri clean-but-two-sided.
At 10:00 ET — RANGE_SET
- Mark ORB high and low from 09:30–10:00 ET.
- Note ORB width vs. 14-day ATR (narrow/normal/wide).
- Confirm VWAP position; mark Prior Day High/Low, Overnight High/Low, VAH/VAL/POC.
- All regime checks pass? → ARM. Any fail? → SKIP_DAY.
On a break attempt
- Did the 5-min candle CLOSE beyond the ORB level (not just wick through)?
- Is price still within 0.25× ORB range of the level?
- Does the break align with HTF bias and VWAP side?
- (Retest variant) has price returned to the level/OB/FVG for entry?
On fill
- Stop at opposite ORB boundary + buffer, or ATR-based stop (0.4× ATR).
- Set T1 = 0.5× ORB range (50% off, remainder to breakeven).
- Set T2 = 1.0× ORB range or begin structure-based trail.
- Confirm size = 1% account risk / stop distance in points.
- Confirm this is the only trade this session on this instrument.
08 — Risk & Money Management
Rules that cap the downside
| Rule | Setting | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| Risk per trade | 1% of account equity | Standard fund-level position sizing; stop distance in points determines contract count |
| Daily loss cap | Fixed % of account (set at fund level) | Halts all new entries for the remainder of the session once breached |
| Max trades per session | 1 per instrument | Enforces the one-trade discipline central to the model; prevents revenge-trading a failed break |
| Max consecutive losses | Configurable circuit breaker | Triggers a mandatory review before the next session is traded live |
| Position sizing basis | Stop distance (ATR-based or range-based) | Keeps dollar risk constant even as ORB width varies day to day |
| No blind stop-and-reverse | Always off by default | A failed long is not an automatic short signal; both directions run the same checks independently |
09 — Concept Cross-Reference Glossary
Same structure, different vocabulary
ORRBITAL's components aren't new ideas — they're the same structural concepts already used under ICT/SMC, Wyckoff, and Market Profile / Order Flow methodologies, renamed. Existing indicator components (EdgeDashboard, EdgeStrategy) can be reused rather than rebuilt.
| ORRBITAL Term | Market Profile | ICT / SMC | Wyckoff | Crabel / Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening Range | Initial Balance | Session dealing range / liquidity pool | Trading range boundary | Opening range |
| ORB High/Low | IB High/Low | Buy-side / sell-side liquidity (BSL/SSL) | Creek (resistance) / Ice (support) | OR high/low |
| Breakout | Range extension | Expansion / displacement | Jump Across the Creek (JAC) / SOS | Range expansion |
| Close Confirmation | Acceptance outside IB | Displacement + market structure shift | SOS on widening spread/volume | Thrust / getaway |
| Failed Breakout | Failed range extension | Liquidity sweep / stop hunt / Judas swing | Spring (below support) / UTAD (above resistance) | Fakeout |
| Retest Entry | Return to IB edge | Breaker / order-block retest, FVG retest | Back-Up to Edge of Creek (BUEC) / LPS | Pullback entry |
| Trend Day | Trend / double-distribution trend day | One-sided delivery, displacement day | Markup / markdown (Phase E) | Range expansion day |
| Chop Day | Neutral / non-trend day | Consolidation, two-sided liquidity raid | Phase B trading range | Contraction day (NR7/inside) |
| HTF Alignment | Higher-TF value migration | HTF bias / draw on liquidity | Composite Operator campaign direction | Daily trend filter |
10 — Parameter Reference
Defaults at a glance
| Parameter | Default | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Opening range window | 09:30–10:00 ET | Adjustable; 30-min window shows fewer whipsaws than 5-min in review data |
| Confirmation timeframe | 5-minute close | Wick entries excluded by design |
| Skip-if-extended threshold | 0.25× ORB range | Prevents chasing an already-extended move |
| Retest variant | Off by default | Toggle on for lower-frequency, higher-quality entries |
| Stop mode | Opposite boundary + 1–2 ticks (ATR mode selectable) | ATR mode (0.4× 14-day ATR) preferred per validation review |
| T1 / T1 size | 0.5× ORB range / 50% off | Move remainder to breakeven at T1 |
| T2 / trail | 1.0× ORB range or structure trail | Trail preferred to capture right-tail MFE |
| Risk per trade | 1% equity | Fund-level sizing standard |
| Max trades/session | 1 per instrument | Hard cap |
| Regime filters (togglable) | NR7, ATR tier, GEX, VIX, day-of-week, HTF bias, news blackout | Independent modules feeding a single regimeOK flag |
11 — Validation, Deployment & Governance
Six stages before live size
Honest Backtest
Rebuild the rule set in Pine Script v5 with realistic commission and slippage on ES/NQ RTH data. Measure true win rate, expectancy in R, profit factor, max drawdown.
Evidence-Based Variant Test
Test the ATR-stop / trailed-runner / NR7-filtered variant against the base rule set. Split train/test windows to check edge decay.
MQL4 Execution Port
Port the validated variant to MQL4 as a closed-bar state machine EA with 1% risk, daily loss cap, session filter, one-trade-per-day enforced in code.
Tick-Data Backtest
Re-test in MT4 using 99% modeling-quality tick data with injected real spread. Treat results as logic validation, not profitability proof.
Forward Demo
Minimum one month on a VPS demo account against a live broker feed. Validate fill quality, session-time alignment, spread behavior around news.
Micro-Size Live
Deploy on MES/MNQ at minimum size. Scale contracts only after 50–100 live trades confirm backtested expectancy within tolerance.
12 — Investor Notes
What ORRBITAL is
A systematic, rules-based execution framework applying opening-range breakout logic with modular regime filtering to index futures — built for consistent, auditable application of a defined edge thesis, not discretionary override.
What ORRBITAL is not
- Not a guaranteed-win-rate system — expected performance is a moderate win rate with asymmetric winners.
- Not regime-agnostic — expected to concentrate in trending, adequately volatile markets.
- Not exempt from execution risk — forward demo testing is a mandatory gate before live capital.
This page is a model specification and internal reference for the BinarryStarr Futures Fund / The StarrLife Group. It does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a guarantee of future performance. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. All backtested statistics referenced are hypothetical and subject to limitations, including that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight.